Thursday, January 27, 2011
MOMENTOUS political events of such magnitude occurred recently that they will be recorded in the annals of history.
Feelings of déjà vu prompt me to distil lessons to be learned:
1. Fortune Favours the Brave
In leadership stakes, when there is a succession contest, proximity to the incumbent can be a significant liability. Micheál Martin took one step backward from Cowen, in order to take two steps forward as the next FF leader. The backbone of his parliamentary support comprises Cowen dissidents. Brian Lenihan is paying the price for sitting on his hands at the decisive moment. He who wields the knife can lift the crown — if the balls fall in your favour. This final moment of truth, á la the "whiskey and revolver" route, came when Ray McSharry (in a grey suit) called time on Cowen’s leadership. Martin’s gamble in opposing the confidence motion provided the pivotal platform to the ultimate prize. Political courage rarely goes unrewarded.
2. First Duty of a Taoiseach
The demise of Brian Cowen is attributed to poor judgement, erratic communications, denial, bad luck and even alcohol. However contributory these may be, what did for him in the end was his inability to sustain a coalition relationship. Multi-party government places an onus on the Taoiseach to construct and maintain bonds of trust with the leadership of the minor party. Human skills of magnanimity, generosity and tolerance are essential. Brian Cowen was either too complacent or stubborn to keep the Greens onside to ensure a viable reshuffle.
Albert Reynolds’ failure to accommodate Dick Spring resulted in Labour looking for "a head on a plate". In November 1994, if it wasn’t that of Harry Whelehan, it had to be Albert’s own. Once trust had been ruptured in the wake of the publication of the Beef Tribunal Report, it was only a matter of time before any straw broke the camel’s back. In the aftermath of the IMF/EU bailout, the Greens signalled their departure from Government on November 22. Cowen was since, walking on eggshells. By all known precedent, he was perfectly entitled to appoint his own FF members to cabinet. The Greens changed the goal posts, because their six crucial votes could torpedo a Dáil resolution. The rights and wrongs of Cowen’s actions became irrelevant as the Greens exercised a veto.
After the 1992 general election, Fine Gael leader John Bruton marched into the Shelbourne hotel to negotiate a new government with a triumphant Dick Spring. Labour’s rebuff to Fine Gael was a humiliation for Bruton. He failed to grasp the requirement of the larger party to bend the knee. By November 1994, he had learned his lesson. The subsequent Rainbow government was extremely cohesive between the three parties because Bruton ensured Spring and De Rossa operated a triumvirate leadership style. The biggest beneficiary in the ensuing election was Fine Gael. FG copped you have to give to get. The ultimate winners of a workable administration are the largest party.
At key moments of conflict between FF and the Greens, Cowen sternly reminded them that their electoral prospects were worse than that of his own party. Friendship and a common fate should have existed between Cowen and Gormley. Failing that, a bond between apparatchiks or colleagues could have sufficed. Kenny and Gilmore should construct the architecture that will provide future cornerstones of solidarity.
3. Beware of Fakes
The mass exodus of big beasts from the political jungle and the torrent of subsequent events obscured adequate analysis of Mary Harney’s legacy. She is the foremost female politician of her generation and perhaps most influential woman in the history of the state. Her ministerial record in the Departments of the Environment, Enterprise and Health stands up to scrutiny. Notable achievements include: banning urban smog; the establishment of the Personal Injuries Assessment Board (reducing insurance costs) and tackling vested interests in the health sector such as hospital consultants and pharmacists. Her most important role was to prop up Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach for a dozen years. Elected in 1981, Harney set herself apart on the FF benches. Like Des O’Malley, she stood by the republic in confronting the Charlie Haughey’s political culture. Through the founding of the Progressive Democrats in 1985, she set her stall out with hallmarks of integrity and independence. Her espousal of free enterprise and small government resonated especially with Fine Gael voters. The PD embrace of the liberal agenda and a cross community consensus in Northern Ireland also ticked boxes for many traditional non-FF voters. The PDs changed the political landscape in the late 1980s to accommodate fiscal discipline rectitude. Fair dues.
From 1997 onwards, Bertie Ahern secured government on three occasions — thanks to Mary Harney. Universal odium is evident towards Bertie’s boom to bust record. Why has it not attached to Harney? She ultimately betrayed the trust bestowed in her.
For the past five years, she has been the poster girl for ministerial junkets. Lavish opulence of her trips to Florida and South Africa reveal appalling arrogance. The antithesis of her political stance transpired — burgeoning bureaucracy in the HSE and FÁS. Value for money was discarded as the cost of the public sector increased each year by 8% per annum between 1999 and 2008. Wanton waste was tolerated and facilitated. Her eloquent, firebrand, rhetorical style centred on accountability. No minister for health has ever been so unaccountable. She refused to answer questions in the Dáil about the delivery of healthcare. The HSE and HIQA were used as buffers to shield her from answering for her stewardship. Her disdain for patient concerns and remoteness displayed contempt and indifference. In retrospect, her FF DNA meant that she was a sheep in wolf’s clothing. She obtained a cohort of votes that FF would never have procured through the PD banner. Little wonder, Dessie O’Malley’s fine PD legacy was obliterated.
4. Politics of the Pocket
Sophisticated media analysts will have you believe what did for Cowen was cronyism, crass judgment, etc. The central cause of FF woe is simple. A sage advisor once told me that the popularity of the Minister for Agriculture was in direct correlation with the price of cattle in Macroom mart on a Tuesday. FF’s 14% opinion poll rating is all about pain in punter’s pockets. Public opinion is angry because of personal impoverishment. Kenny and Gilmore should beware. Only €6bn of the €15bn of fiscal adjustment has been inflicted. Don’t be surprised if the next administration, even if politically perfect, is loathed within a year. €9bn of heavy lifting in public service reform and revenue based broadening will equally imperil the most promising of politicos. Job cuts, residential property taxation and water rates are all awaited.
5. Plus ça change
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