Michael D takes the lead but the mighty Quinn could be a contender

By Ivan Yates

Thursday, August 18, 2011

THE silly season is in full swing.

The Irish body politic is currently comatose. Fatigue from the past year of electioneering and regime change has taken its toll. No politician seems bothered to make their name during the recess. The courts are closed. Even vested interests and the usual talking heads are in hibernation. Hence the presidential election campaign is receiving hyperactive media attention. They build them up, only to knock them down again. It resembles one of the poorer Big Brother summer series. Evictions are coming fast and furious — David Norris and Gay Byrne were forced to leave the house, before they could be voted off.

The withdrawal of Mr Norris’ candidacy was a sour and unpleasant affair. His appeal was based on his colourful charisma, independence from party politics, scholarly professorial aura, enthusiasm, energy and charm — who else wears three-piece suits any more? By the time his opponents got to work on his reputation, he was depicted as a homosexual who was an apologist for statutory rape of a minor. A lethal cocktail of pederasty, clemency correspondence and naïveté destroyed his lifetime ambition to be head of state. His dignified departure, quoting Samuel Beckett, gave us a glimpse of potential eloquence of a president. In polls, he remains the most popular choice.

Next up, Gay Byrne. As a putative broadcaster myself, I readily appreciate why he has been the nation’s foremost communicator for four decades. His abilities as a compère, presenter, interviewer and raconteur have no equal. His innate sense of timing, listening, interrogating, production, research, ranting and humour has made him an iconic figure. Whether the subject was light or heavy, he knew how to make it interesting and anything but bland. He was equally adept in captivating an audience on television, radio or a live event. His larger-than-life persona and razor-sharp spontaneity enlivens presentation of the most boring guests and topics. All programmes have suffered declines in audience levels since his departure.

What Gabyo and Micheál Martin didn’t appreciate was his lack of political campaign experience. All elections, but most especially the presidential contest, are “knock down, drag out” blood sports. The notion that Gay wouldn’t need to go through a selection convention, tour the country, face family and financial scrutiny was ill-considered.

He had a lucky escape. His legacy as a legend would have been sullied, if not destroyed. Toxicity of the touch from Fianna Fáil would have undermined his credibility as an independent candidate. Media performers must act as windup merchants, prone to exaggeration for effect. Past quotations, taken out of context, would have been hurled back in his face. A turn of phrase about Brussels bureaucrats can translate into profound Euro scepticism.

Prospects of another new non-political persona emerging have receded. Individuals such as Olivia O’Leary, John Bowman, Micheál Ó Muircheartaigh and Mickey Harte are likely to be much more nervous and cautious of even considering throwing their hats in the ring after turmoil of recent weeks.

None of the above has fought an electoral contest. Tenacity, perseverance, downright dedication and will to win at all costs are essential prerequisites to being on the ballot paper. The bar is now so high for eligibility to this office that only paragons of virtue need apply. Any past misdemeanour, regardless of the context, can be regurgitated and used as evidence against them. Expectations as to what is required of our next president have reached farcical proportions.

The most important consideration must be how the successful applicant will perform in the office. The job spec? Be able to lay wreathes, shake hands firmly, smile sincerely, conduct endless small talk, read scripts and wave serenely. Whereas, as of now, the requirements include: inspire individuals; embody the nation, espouse a visionary future and represent the diversity of local communities. Fundamental contradictions abound in the analysis of our vote on October 27. The victor has to simultaneously come through the political process and be above politics. They cannot be afflicted with the taint of a political party and yet, must penetrate the nomination process controlled by the same said parties. They are expected to be a force for change, while carrying out a ceremonial role, not rocking the boat.

One person could match these almost irreconcilable demands. Who? Consider Senator Fergal Quinn. He founded an indigenous retail business that created 5,000 jobs, cleverly selling it at the top of the market. He pioneered innovations in food and customer service. Since 1993 he was elected as an independent senator.

His legislative contributions in the areas of organ transplants/donations and commercial protection of sub suppliers/contractors have been entirely constructive. He has rendered some public service as former chairman of An Post, when it launched the national lottery. He represented us internationally as a former president of Eurocommerce.

He hosts his own TV show, Retail Therapy. He looks the part and has enthusiastic eloquence for every occasion. At 75 years of age, he’s somewhat auld — but ageism is now a criminal offence. We could do a lot worse.

We may be left with the core four of Higgins, Mitchell, Davis and Gallagher. Perhaps FF or Sinn Féin will nominate one of their own, Brian Crowley MEP or Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD. On paper, the Fine Gael nominee should have a significant head start. Unfortunately for Mitchell, many consider him more suited to a frontline combative political post than a diplomatic one. He takes no prisoners. He is perceived as Dublin-centric. FG party leadership preferred either Cox or McGuinness. He may not obtain half of the FG current market share. He successfully exploited antipathy to party leadership in gaining the nomination. While the party will close ranks around him in coming weeks, this may not be enough to get him over the line.

There is still no evidence that Mary Davis or Sean Gallagher have gained traction with the electorate. They struggle to break into double-digit poll territory. They lack the nationwide organisational infrastructure and financial resources for victory. Gallagher’s disconnection from FF is starting to appear somewhat shabby. He seeks to disown past membership, while denying they actually booted him off their national executive. Davis suffers when compared to the two previous incumbent Marys, a little too lite.

Therefore, by default, we are left with the most likely winner. Paddy Power bookmakers commissioned last week’s Red C opinion poll. They have shifted the odds of Michael D Higgins winning from 13/8 to 8/11. This significant market move from odds-against to odds-on gives us the best clue as to the outcome. On second and subsequent preference intentions Higgins seems best poised to progress on the elimination of weaker candidates. Compared to other ancient possibles, at 70 years, he appears almost youthful. The Labour Party machine has united behind him. Not for the first time, attributed to a front-runner, it appears it is his to lose … famous last words.

This appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Thursday, August 18, 2011