THE Government’s radar needs to be on amber alert. Up ahead lurks an iceberg that could rip our Titanic below the waterline and sink fragile hopes of economic recovery.
MOTOR Neuron Disease in all its horror was brought to life by Colm Murray.
DID you happen to see Michael O’Leary on the Late Late show last week?
DOWNGRADING of France as a triple A credit rated state can usher in a new phase in the eurozone crisis.
DURING January, Enda Kenny is to call in all ministers on a bilateral basis to assess their report cards and drive forward government priorities.
SINCE 1764 pundits attempt to accurately predict Ireland’s events of each New Year. Best known of these is Old Moore’s Almanac, established by Theophilus Moore, a clerical academic from Milltown, Dublin.
CONSULTANTS, specialising in crisis public relations, tell you most media cycles don’t endure beyond nine days. From breaking of stories to revelations and reactions from every angle, they are usually wrapped up in three days.
During the Noughties Government buildings entertained interlopers.
WHICH part of this deal did they think might appeal to us?
ON the eve of an EU summit, where a draft new treaty emerges, expect a return of the “no alternative” brigade.
POLITICIANS love small businesses.
POLITICIANS love small businesses. They appoint a token junior minister (John Perry), with special responsibility for their needs.
“WE require a head — yours or Harry’s”.
NO matter how many ways that you try to adapt candlelight it can’t be made into a light bulb.
IN MY youth, I was obliged to attend Sunday Services.
IF opinion polls are even partially correct, there’ll be serious head scratching amongst political insiders. The phenomenal rise and rise of Sean Gallagher has confounded pundits and political parties. At the close of nominations, a month ago, his ratings tallied at 9% to 12% - fifth place. Nothing emerged that adds to his CV.
GOVERNMENT indifference to defaulting debtors is abundantly clear. The composition of the Working Group on Mortgage Arrears excluded external expertise, comprising only civil servants and bankers.
The good and great assembled in Dublin Castle, deliberating at the Global Irish Economic Forum, to conceive new ideas for our economic prosperity.
THREE weeks today, we will elect Ireland’s ninth president.
THE countdown has begun. It is a matter of when, not if, the Greek government and creditors will have to reconcile a 50% default on their sovereign debt.
THE TV3 documentary series The Rise and Fall of Fianna Fáil is probably the first of many broadcast and print reviews of the party that seeks to place political events in a historical context.
Intrinsic share values of state companies have been systematically pillaged by management and employees.
LAST week, while filling in for Vincent Browne on TV 3, I stumbled across a current controversy.
DEEP divisions are at the heart of prevailing paralysis in the eurozone.
THE silly season is in full swing.
REMEMBER the blockbuster Rich Man, Poor Man? This spectacularly successful televised drama series in 1976 was based on the tale of the Jordache brothers, Rudy and Tom.
RENOWNED cyclist and classic golfer, Enda Kenny, can enjoy his August break. The good news just keeps coming: excellent poll ratings, largest ever Dáil majority, principal opponents FF in toxic (even terminal) condition, afterglow of historic successful visits by Queen and President Obama, triumphant speech denouncing Vatican, improved bailout terms and best of all, prospects of Mayo winning Sam Maguire.
EUROCRATS and politicians still conspire to ensure that the truth is obscured about our future debt destiny.
ALONG with the Presidential election, a referendum will be held on the right of the Dáil to determine judicial pay levels. Despite private howls of protest and refusal to voluntarily accept the pension levy by some judges, it is certain that a massive majority of the electorate will endorse this limitation on the independence of the judiciary.
THE bank holiday break should have given ministers opportunity to consider medium-term viability prospects rather than short term hyperactivity.
CRITICS of Enda Kenny have taken cheap shots at his College Green performance.
POLITICIANS cannot resist expediency. Urgent takes precedence over important. Years of demographic analysis, a Green Paper in 2007 and the launch of the National Pension Framework in March of last year set out our looming dilemma of unfunded pension obligations. By 2050 the ratio of workers to retirees will be 1.8: 1. Currently that ratio is 5.6: 1.
FAIR dues to Edmund Honohan. The master of the high court has called it as he sees it. His job means that he has the role akin to air traffic controller in processing legal debt conflict.
LATE last week, a handful of media organisations contacted me with bad news concerning the serious illness of Dr Garret FitzGerald. Fearing the worst, they were preparing appropriate tributes. He was gravely ill, suffering from pneumonia and surviving on a ventilator in hospital.
BENEATH the radar of tumultuous politics, Dr James Reilly ascended the greasy pole. Elected at his initial attempt in Dublin North, his rise through the ranks has been utterly remarkable.
THE national preoccupation of living life through the rearview mirror meant that Peter Nyberg’s historic analysis of our economic crisis took precedence over Colm McCarthy’s privatisation prescriptions for state companies.
The hoopla emerging from Friday’s distressed property auction in the Shelbourne Hotel obscures huge headaches for the new Government.
NOW that ministers are sitting comfortably in their new offices, with advisors appointed, time to press ahead with the 100-day programme.
BEFORE the good people from BlackRock Solutions and Boston Consulting Group leave the jurisdiction, they might be asked to do an additional stress test — on Ireland’s exchequer. Larry Fink and the lads carry the ultimate status of credibility worldwide. No one seems to have followed the logical conclusion of their analysis, beyond banks, for their state guarantor.
TODAY was supposed to be the day when we would get “finality” and “definitive” endgame figures about the extent of bank losses and size of ultimate cheque tax payers would have to write to bail them out. Dream on.
FOR Ireland to escape the drop zone and avoid relegation from the euro currency league, we must win our home fixtures. Away games are subject to vagaries of fortune.
MICHAEL NOONAN can correctly claim a lot of credit for the resuscitation of Fine Gael in the polls since last June by providing a credible anchor of economic policy.
WAKEY, wakey. The alarm clock is set early this morning for our new cabinet.
GREATEST misnomer of the election was of any outright winner.
DEAR Enda,
Before votes are cast and counted, let me warmly congratulate you on your inevitable election as Taoiseach.
JUST one full week of campaigning to go. Time to finalise predictions for the election outcome. Many undecided voters don’t finalise their preferences until the last few days. There is still time for variations and late surprises but the overall shape of the result is now apparent.
LET’S fast forward to Monday, February 28 … After a hectic weekend of counting, the last seats have been allocated. Voters have spoken.
THE death of the 30th Dáil can allow rebirth of Irish democracy. An unnoticed aspect of Bertie Ahern’s tenure was the irrelevance of policy platforms within parties.
MOMENTOUS political events of such magnitude occurred recently that they will be recorded in the annals of history.
THE late Seamus Brennan cautioned the Green party government negotiators that they were now playing All-Ireland senior hurling. Internal Fianna Fáil politics is much more brutal — it’s a genuine blood sport.
On the cusp of changing years, it’s traditional to acknowledge achievers and set out new aspirations. 2010 was no ordinary year. ‘Annus horribilis’ doesn’t come close — ‘maximus’ needs to be inserted.
OUR politicians are so self indulgent. It’s always about them. Dithering over the timing of the election date reminds me of similar political paralysis in 2008.
THE last vestige of credibility evaporated from the Progressive Democrats from the moment Michael McDowell hoist the petard that the PDs were exiting government — only to subsequently change their minds.
TONY Blair and George Bush maintained one maxim throughout the Iraq war.
THE poster boys for our financial crisis have been well established: Seánie Fitz, ‘Fingers’ Fingleton, Eugene Sheehy, Patrick Neary, Bertie Ahern, Charlie McCreevy, Brian Cowen.
NEGATIVITY of the national public mood is at fever pitch. The response to the allocation of free cheese has been bizarre. As part of the Common Agricultural Policy, the EU Commission has a regular policy of acquiring and distributing free food, within its remit.
THIS week’s visit by Olli Rehn from Brussels sets the domestic mood music for the Government’s draconian budget.
OUR contemporary Celtic crisis is akin to a three-leaf shamrock. The first component is the banking failure.
ONE of the more strident sayings in our period of construction mania between 2004 and 2007 was “build it and they will come”.
A FEW years ago at a meeting with a senior banker in relation to financing an acquisition I raised the question of their fees. The head honcho replied “I love to talk dirty…”
Greetings from Ireland. We are delighted your club is topping the table in the Premiership, following on from last year’s league and cup double.
NEW and unprecedented high watermarks are being recorded on a weekly basis.
A SIGNIFICANT shift is occurring in business management.
The first salvos have been fired in the race for Áras an Uachtaráin.
A NEW ‘national question’ stalks the land. The historical civil war between pro- and anti-treaty was replaced by extreme points of view on the North. These were represented as either a ‘Brits out’ and unitary state perspective or allowing a veto for unionist consent.
CATHAL Magee is the new kid on the HSE block. This week he embarks on the most challenging public sector role of delivering on patient safety and timely care.
SO, what’s new pussycat? After several sleepy weeks of the silly season, reality reasserts as the kids go back to school.
OFFICIALLY, gambling is a taboo subject in this country. Betting is a minority pursuit, as only 17% of adults wager more than once a week.
THIS weekend marks the official holiday exodus of our public policy makers.
AS THE full extent of the nation’s failings becomes visible, we should reflect on what aspects of Irish behaviour and attitudes differ to the rest of the developed western world. What are the cultural issues to address that contribute to us being on the brink of bankruptcy?
THE second NAMA business plan explodes many myths expounded when it was originally advocated.
THE focus on rural Ireland over recent weeks related to blood sports.
THE mid-point of the year sees the publication of the half-year exchequer returns and CSO data on the economy. This will form the backdrop to the formation of December’s budget.
I USED to be an inveterate funeral goer – several per week. I hadn’t been to one for the past two years until the unexpected death of newspaper man and former schoolmate, Alan Ruddock.
THE two Brians need to wake up fast. Recent news emerging about Anglo Irish Bank is analogous to the BP oil well in the Gulf of Mexico.
PROFESSOR Brendan Drumm epitomised the worst aspects of public administration late last week.
DID you happen to see the Heineken Cup final (albeit on Sky)? There was a defining moment in the second half.
HAVE you encountered the latest social phenomenon? The Celtic Cubs are voting with their feet. They’ve heard all the propaganda about recovery and positivity. Their real choice is Canada, Australia or Britain. Emigration parties are now commonplace as well wishers offer their best for a bright new future.
GETTING up at 3.50am to present the early Newstalk radio show means my body clock doesn’t understand bank holiday weekends.
DURING our last general election in 2007, my occupation was bookmaking. Our firm pioneered betting markets for every candidate and constituency.
THE state of our public finances has taken on a severe international dimension in the past week. Two events have brought into sharp focus the perilous path Ireland treads.
THE toast at the annual Labour party conference in Galway was ‘Eamon Gilmore for Taoiseach’. This ambition has a semblance of credibility in the context of the party leaders’ opinion poll approval ratings.
THE Croke Park accord is apparently heading up a cul de sac. Key public sector unions are coming out against the revised pay deal.
THE Croke Park accord is apparently heading up a cul de sac. Key public sector unions are coming out against the revised pay deal.
THE implosion of our financial services sector just keeps giving more trauma and we have been constantly misled with only partial, minimalist, optimistic instalments of information. This has led the state to take ownership of virtually the entire indigenous banking sector and its liabilities.
AND so they’re off. The people of Britain, as long expected, are taking a trip to the polls on May 6.
BEFORE the dawn comes the darkest hour. This week’s choreography between the Minister for Finance, Central Bank governor and Financial Regulator seeks to reconstruct the Irish banking system. We have to hope it works. Don’t be too fearful about the enormous sums being injected into AIB and Bank of Ireland.
WHAT was happening last week in Bray garda station? Is it possible that a process has started whereby former senior bankers, who have brought our economy to the precipice of insolvency, will face the four-letter ‘g’ word? Get a grip. Cop yourself on. Ireland doesn’t do gaol, it does golf. There is little imminent prospect of justice. We should not be surprised.
THE Taoiseach returns today from Washington. At the top of his in-tray is next Tuesday’s ministerial reshuffle. This represents his last chance to refresh his Government.
POLITICIANS are geared to think only as far as the next election. They go into liquidation if they lose their seat.
THERE is an unanswerable case now for the Government to publish a white paper on banking. The multiplicity of reasons for this needs to be chronicled.
THE past week may prove to be a defining moment for the Greens in Government. Before the dawn comes the darkest hour. They learned however much they wish to avoid a general election, Fianna Fáil are even more eager to evade the electorate.
THE media frenzy about George Lee has abated. Opinion is divided whether Fine Gael could have managed him differently or he was impatient, unreasonable and egotistical.
GEORGE Lee has made an eejit of himself. The biggest loser in George Lee’s series of decisions to exit RTÉ and now return is himself. He has reduced his broadcasting and political careers to a media circus. Within a week, this will have evaporated.
BUSINESS strategy has three fundamentals: grow revenue, maintain margins and cut costs. Ireland Inc is now reducing its cost base with unprecedented deflation of 5% over the past year. The public finances trade at a monthly loss of €2bn and the first budgetary steps were taken to arrest this fiscal deficit.
WHY have domestic politics become so boring? Last year, since the local and European elections, there has been a palpable sense of tension and uncertainty within the Dáil and Government.
RECENT public debate about the banking inquiry has failed to highlight the role of property developers as culprits. The explosion of bank credit from 2002 to 2008 and laxity failure by our regulators have been well documented.
THE resistance to a formal inquiry into the collapse of our banking system needs to be confronted head on. Taxpayers are mortgaging their children’s future to preserve Irish financial institutions.
AS a new year unfolds, the next phase of the recession will be more brutal. At every level, be it household, business or nationally, we have been busily adjusting our expenditure in line with reduced incomes and revenue. As the situation deteriorated, we kept our focus on survival. Each situation eventually stabilises.
TODAY is the last day of the noughties decade. Many milestone events have occurred in politics, economics and global affairs.
OUT here in the real economy, the worldly-wise knew in mid-2007 that the Celtic Tiger was dead. Property prices started to fall, spending slowed, job losses accelerated and business sentiment turned sour.
FINANCE Minister Brian Lenihan’s budget assertion that “the worst is over” is sadly wide of the mark. There cannot be recovery in the real economy unless and until solutions are found to secure the viability of our banks and building societies.
RATHER like a terminal illness, no matter how rational the expectation, the final act is somewhat shocking. This budget was comprehensively leaked to the media over the past week.
AN Irishman’s notion of foreplay has been described as “Brace yourself, Bridget”. This aptly applies to next week’s budget. The yawning gap between public expenditure and revenue has grown over the past two years and is now at crisis levels.
I AM increasingly convinced that events move in cycles. Our current economic difficulties, particularly the unsustainability of the public finances seem to mirror the 1980s — increased borrowing, political procrastination, public sector conflict and, ultimately, cutbacks.
THE Dáil this week has a pre-budget debate. Eamon Gilmore and Enda Kenny need to watch out for the offside rule. In soccer, no forward can be in front of the last defender other than the goalie, while ahead of the ball. The best defences move up the pitch and suddenly players are ruled offside. The Government’s political defenders are perceptibly shifting ground.
REPORTS indicate the frailty of male mental health. Stress and depression are leading to more psychiatric hospital admissions. Statistics indicate male suicide is up 40%.
POLITICAL and other spin doctors know how to manage a crisis. The critical factor is to hang on. They believe virtually all news media cycles are “nine-day wonders”.
THE cabinet is working a double shift. Along with their regular weekly Tuesday meetings they sit every Thursday to deliberate on the budget. Their target is to obtain a €4bn reduction in public expenditure.
THE NAMA debate has moved on. This week and next, the Dáil will amend the detailed provisions of the legislation.
He was renowned for politicised grant-giving as Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism. There is little evidence of personal humility throughout his political career. His penchant for luxury was exceptional and unsustainable. He doesn’t deserve sympathy or victim status because he milked the system
The overriding truth of this entire campaign was the upside of voting Yes was relatively modest to the disastrous impact of a No vote. The prospects of investor confidence collapsing would have incurred lasting long-term damage. There was no Plan C in the event of failure
Brian Lenihan seems to be the only senior Government politician who attempts to give effective leadership. FF’s minor upward blip in the polls is due to his assertive confidence ... He can chart a course for future positive direction for the nation, based on realism and straight speaking
HIGH Court judges Peter Kelly and Frank Clarke found the business plans of Liam Carroll’s Zoe group to be artificial and fanciful. I fear the NAMA plan would equally fail their scrutiny. This does not mean NAMA isn’t a viable solution.
The state guarantee on Irish bank deposits, nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank and NAMA would all have been impossible without the ECB’s €100bn.
Each passing week we add €400m to the national debt to keep the show on the road. We’ll be lucky if the fiscal outcome for 2009 is limited to an appalling gaping deficit of €20bn. Political decisions alone are responsible for this madness. We can’t blame Lehman Bros, subprime lending or the credit crunch
Politicians deeply abhor and detest general elections. All recoil at the personal horror of their own uncertainty. TDs are always in a constant state of denial about the prospects of a pending contest. The profound level of private insecurity has to be felt to be believed.
If you stay around long enough in the one position in politics, you will accumulate a lot of enemies. Harney has not lacked for courage or shirked conflict. Like all warriors, eventually the scars of battle take their toll. Too many health commentators, professionals and leaders want rid of her
Apparently, we are going to start with a current market value and then add on an expectant premium to reflect future prospects. That may sound plausible, but it’s fiction. Nobody knows what future property prices will be, when they might recover and to what extent
Rumours are rampant that our largest developers are transferring properties to spouses and relatives to circumvent “personal guarantees” being invoked to seize their lucrative personal assets
COLM McCARTHY is a wily old fox. From past involvement in the late 1980s, he learned the mechanics of Government finances. Every year an annual ritual commences in early summer. Each line department submits its proposed budgetary outline for the following year. A series of bilateral meetings then takes place with dedicated officials in the Department of Finance. This arm wrestle usually involves incremental adjustment for inflation and the occasional initiative.
Unfortunately, sufficient reality has not yet prevailed on the property sector. It seems many landlords, in refusing to negotiate rents downward, would rather have their properties vacant. This denial and refusal by property-owners is one of the greatest causes of closure.
The ultimate downgrade has been dealt by deputies themselves. The psyche of your average TD is focused on the overriding key priority to get re-elected. Sitting and speaking in the Dáil chamber or attendance at Oireachtas committees represents the poorest return on investment of their time
Your commentary on our banks is terrifying. We were aware we had toxic loans of up to €90bn, but not that the crystallised losses would be €35bn net. This hit equates to 20% of our economic annual output. Your proposals to restructure the banks are profoundly significant
Notwithstanding Gerry Adams’s place in Irish history, perhaps he is a figure from the past. His grasp of detail on economic matters here is questionable. Beyond bland clichés, policy specifics are scanty. Sinn Féin’s Dáil performance has been weak and low-profile
There is another bastion that needs to come under scrutiny – the Supreme Court This most august, overriding authority is unelected and unaccountable. Its judges are probably our most learned lawyers. However, they have handed down judgments in relation to referenda that almost render the process unmanageable
The future narrative of national politics seems foreseeable. The FF/Green government will circle the wagons and limp on in a weakened state. With each unpopular measure, the clamour for change will escalate. Eventually they will buckle on some specific issue
Our republic is just over 60 years old. As you mature through life, you reflect on your own failures, errors and shortcomings. As a nation we need to face these with honesty. We have been too trusting and deferential to those on whom we have conferred authority
It has been suggested that my past as a Fine Gael politician renders me unsuitable and inappropriate as a broadcast presenter because of party prejudice. I want to confront this issue head-on.
The OPW is renting – at high cost – dozens of unoccupied buildings, partly arising out of the aborted decentralisation scheme. It’s a disgrace. Heads should roll. I would issue an edict to terminate such leases forthwith.
Every forecast he and the Government have made over the past three years has been laughably wrong. The forecasts of the live register of unemployed and tax revenues have been so erroneous that ordinary people just don’t believe the Government has a proper grip on the deteriorating economic situation
How can a country with a GDP output of €150bn a year continually borrow €30bn annually to run Government services? Is it not completely inevitable that the IMF and world bankers will have to take charge of the situation? Bring it on
FF’s results in previous Euro elections are poor. From 1979 to 2004 the average FF Euro vote over the 30-year period was 34.73%. Over the same period, the FF vote in general elections from 1981 to 2007 shows a significant differential. Their average over nine general elections was 43.05%
I can’t shed many tears for the teachers. Especially when I reflect on the sleepless nights we are all having in coping with our fears of job insecurity and falling incomes.
THE Government’s army of spin have been busy over the past week. They have been trying to convince us that the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) plan is: the only way to restore bank credit to the wider economy; there is no alternative and they know what they are doing.
We may have to accept the inevitable reality that our main banks cannot endure as currently structured. A state property quango that would operate for up to two decades is a frightening prospect and should be resisted. Bank nationalisation is preferable
MIDDLE-INCOME Ireland is set to receive the bills for a decade of excessive Government spending. Significantly less take home pay will be a reality from May 1 for ordinary workers.
Over the past two weeks the Government has spun the message that previous fiscal targets are to be relaxed. An exchequer annual deficit of 9.5% or €17.5bn could stretch to 12%. We are now embarking along the same road as the 1980s
UNEMPLOYMENT has reached 354,000 and is rising at the rate of 1,000 per day. Brian Cowen told the Dáil it could exceed 450,000 by year end. All his estimates to date have been overly optimistic. The reality is that we face the prospect of more than half a million jobless.
LAST week I returned to the classroom as a pupil for the first time in 30 years. I am seeking to obtain a diploma as a chartered director at the IMI. The first module was strategic business direction. The lecturer was Prof Patrick McNamee who is a top MBA teacher at the University of Ulster and an international consultant.
DESPITE attempts to sanitise and whitewash the full horrors of Anglo Irish Bank in the annual report, the truth is being exposed. This is the worst financial scandal in the history of our State. It is now time to compare and contrast this sorry saga with the worst financial scandal in the USA — Enron Corporation.
BRACE yourself. The annual report of Anglo Irish Bank will be published tomorrow. The full extent of the toxicity of this former plc and its nefarious practices from October ’07 to the end of September’08 will be exposed.
IN the early stages of this recession, politicians assured us we were not returning to the 1980s. Now we are facing something much, much worse. How bad will it get? How long will it last?
PRESIDENT Mary McAleese is donating a number of ball gowns to a charity auction. This alerted me to the prospect of life after her presidency when it ends in 2011.
Brian Cowen’s government is predicated on the primacy of partnership. We have delayed taking the sharp correctional measures required because the pillars of partnership were in denial about economic reality. What a costly delay. Our national debt is set to pole-vault from €30bn to €70bn in the space of two years.
THREE weeks into the new year, we are faced with a deluge of disastrous news. Dell, Waterford Wedgwood, Chartbusters and Kostal have all rationalised.
BECAUSE I am not a Catholic, I was reluctant to wade into the Bishop Magee controversy. The Ferns diocese in Co Wexford went through a decade of turmoil, which Cloyne is now experiencing. We discovered more than 100 individual allegations of clerical sexual abuse between 1962 and 2002. These involved 21 priests.
THE festive Christmas break prevented proper analysis of one of the most shocking and infamous scandals ever to arise in corporate Ireland.
BEING asked by the editor to set out what I would do if I was taoiseach in 2009 is like a fantasy football competition.
THE EU Council has given its response to the Irish no vote in last June’s referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. We have been so engrossed in the Irish perspective of how our negative vote should be interpreted that we have not stopped to listen.
TWO fundamental factors allow any business to survive: profits and capital. Throughout the year, faced with a drop in revenue, businesses have responded by battening down the hatches.
An open letter to Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance.
TWO fundamental factors allow any business to survive: profits and capital. Throughout the year, faced with a drop in revenue, businesses have responded by battening down the hatches.
TWO opinion polls since the budget indicate Fine Gael support as high as 34% whereas Fianna Fáil had slipped to as low as 26%.
FOR me this week’s burning issue is not the demise of the PDs, wanton murder, the worsening recession or the US presidential election fallout.
WHAT do Kilkenny hurlers and Barack Obama have in common? You know both are going to win, it’s just a matter of by how much. Any semblance of a contest for the White House evaporated in mid-September when the US congress attempted to approve the Wall Street bailout.
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