Monday, November 12, 2007
PEAK demand for electricity is set to increase by 200 megawatts this winter, equal to the needs of 130,000 houses.
And, there are no absolute guarantees of an adequate supply to avert power shortages.
Demand for power in Ireland has been growing rapidly and at a higher rate than in many other EU countries. This is fuelled by a major growth in new houses — many fitted with a large amount of the latest electrical appliances — and an increasing use of power by existing customers.
We now use more than double the amount of power we did in the 1980s. This huge demand growth and ageing generation plants, which breakdown, have created a tight electricity market for the next few years, according to the ERSI.
Hospitals and large businesses are prioritised when supply is limited, but simple services such as traffic signals can be cut from the grid at little or no notice, causing major disruptions. It is these aspects that need to be addressed, said the ERSI. People can also help by switching of unnecessary lights in homes and workplaces, for example, and there are suggestions that electricity charges should be higher at times of peak demand. Extra charges would be another good reason for cutting back on electricity use. When all plants are operating, the probability of a shortage is very small, but the age and dilapidated state of some of the country’s main power generation plants, including Dublin’s Poolbeg facility, mean that supplies can be cut at short notice.
Last November, for instance, 18% of generation capacity was unavailable because of unplanned outages.
EirGrid, which runs Ireland’s electricity transmission, estimates that there will be spare capacity of 602 megawatts on the day of peak demand this winter. Last year peak demand was on December 19, going over 5,000 megawatts for the first time and hitting 5,035 megawatts.
EirGrid reckons peak demand this year will hit 5,250 megawatts. This extra demand will be met, according to EirGrid, by extra wind power, energy from Britain through the North-South interconnector and Viridian’s new generator in Finglas, from which power will be available within a few months.
But it also highlighted significant risks to the power supply, if generation availability fails to meet the expected levels and if more plants than usual break down.
Other groups have also warned of power shortages this and next winter if plants are closed or undergoing maintenance. EirGrid, however, says no scheduled outages are planned between this November and March 2008 The ERSI said that the probability of a shortage depended crucially on the power units in Poolbeg, Great Island and Tarbert. If these work, chances are there will be no shortages. When none of the three is running, however, the probability of a shortage jumps to 47%.
"Maintenance of these units is therefore a great priority. Agreements between the Commission for Energy Regulation and the ESB, aimed at reducing the ESB’s market power, will likely involve the closure of the Poolbeg steam plants, Great Island and Tarbert by 2010," it said.
The issue of having reliable power supplies was raised recently by Deputy Brian O’Shea who called on Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Eamon Ryan to throw some light on the subject.
The minister said, based on EirGrid’s analysis and on detailed contact with each of the power generators, EirGrid forecasts electricity generating capacity will be sufficient to meet demand this winter.
Chances of a shortage are highest in the two weeks before Christmas. As a result, contingency measures have been put in place, with approximately 300 megawatts of power on the North-South electricity interconnector being reserved for the Republic.
Laura Malaguzzi, co-author of the ERSI report, said power supplies needed to be managed to ensure supplies for essential services.
Everyone agrees something needs to be done urgently to prevent the problem becoming a recurring one each winter.
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