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Uncertainty on deadline for debt refinancing

The Government will have to wait at least another month before knowing if the EU will provide funds to make the country’s debt affordable.

Negotiations with the ECB on replacing the €31bn Anglo promissory notes appear to be stuck, while getting a new €31bn loan to refinance the money the State put into the banks will have to wait until Spain moves on its situation.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan travelled to Berlin and Paris yesterday to whip up some political support for the Irish case to cut the country’s debt, which the IMF warned could spiral out of control if global growth does not pick up.

While he was still working towards an end-Oct deadline: “if it goes a little bit beyond that, for good reasons that play to our advantage, that won’t cause us a lot of concern...the most advantageous position is whenever we can get the best deal”.

He would like to have agreement before the budget is finalised, but it would not mean a softer budget.

“It doesn’t really change the budget arithmetic because our intention would be if we get the kind of arrangement we are seeking, we will use the gain to reduce the debt and make it more sustainable,” Mr Noonan said in Paris.

He confirmed there was a difference between the Government and the ECB over the promissory notes. “I think it is an open secret that as yet the Irish position and the EC position aren’t totally aligned, but discussions continue,” he said.

Frankfurt favours the EU’s bailout fund, the ESM, providing the refinancing, but the government argues that this new debt would be senior — something the markets would see as increasing the risks for them investing in the country.

The government is arguing for long-term government securities, which the IMF says would only modestly lower the country’s debt path, but would significantly cut financing needs in coming years.

Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling in favour of the ESM yesterday cleared the way for the fund to directly recapitalise banks — and to do so for Ireland retrospectively.

Eurogroup president Jean Claude Juncker said he will call the first meeting of the new ESM on Oct 8 when the eurozone finance ministers meet.

But the €500bn fund will not be able to lend directly to states for bank recapitalisation until the single banking supervisory system is established. Details of the new system were announced by the Commission yesterday.

It is hoped it will be established by Jan 1 next, with the ECB in overall charge, and although it will be phased in over the following 12 months, the start date should be sufficient to allow the ESM to provide funding for banks.

Mr Noonan has reiterated he does not expect Ireland will have to wait until then for a decision on its bid for up to €62bn in a long-term low-interest rate loan. But EU leaders linked the move for Ireland last June to a deal for Spain, which so far has not applied for EU help.

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