Dukes predicts EU compact will fail

The fiscal compact will “fall apart” within two years because the EU’s strongest member states will gradually reject the austerity demands it places on them, Alan Dukes has predicted.

The former Fine Gael leader also said Enda Kenny had made a “mistake” in promising too much during the election campaign in terms of renegotiating Ireland’s bailout programme.

It is unusual, but not unprecedented, for a former party leader to criticise one of his successors. Responding to a keynote speech on the EU delivered by Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, Mr Dukes said there had been a “total abdication” by 15 of the 17 member states in the eurozone since last year because they had caved in to the demands of Germany and France.

As a result, he suggested, Ireland was effectively locked into the compact. “The reality of the situation that we’re in now, ugly as it is, is that whatever we do or say about this fiscal compact, it is going to be EU practice for some time,” he said.

“My suspicion is that when the next French government and the next German government see what they’re facing... They’re going to find that they don’t like the kind of austerity programme that that means for them. My guess is that this treaty will fall apart as a matter of practice within two years.”