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Output report set to reveal green shoots

Ireland’s economy is likely to have shown growth for the first time in three quarters when output figures for the first three months of the year are released tomorrow, a Reuters poll shows.

Ireland unexpectedly followed most of the eurozone back into recession in the last quarter of 2011 despite seeing GDP for the year as a whole rise by 0.7%, a figure the Government hopes to match this year.

The poll of 10 economists surveyed by Reuters and published yesterday, saw GDP growing by 0.6% in 2012, with a quarterly expansion of 0.4% between January and March despite flatter growth among Ireland’s main trading partners in Europe.

“Despite the slowdown in the global economy, it is clear that Ireland has a very healthy and dynamic export model, helped by its focus on recession-proof goods,” said Alan McQuaid, an economist with Merrion Stockbrokers.

“Overall, Ireland is, in our view, in a much better position than other eurozone ‘peripheral’ debt countries to move forward once world growth picks up again.”

Ireland’s recovery, while slow and steady, desperately needs a stronger global economy to deliver the kind of export-led growth needed to make inroads into a debt pile set to peak at 120% of GDP next year.

The economists predict GDP will rise by 1.9% in 2013, up 0.1% on their forecast last month but less than growth of 2.2% pencilled in by the Government.

Expectations for export growth next year, however, have dropped, with the median forecast cut to 3.7%, from 3.8% last month and 4% in May’s poll, indicating that the continued slowdown in key export markets may bite next year.

Ireland is still on track to meet the deficit targets set out under its EU/IMF bailout, the poll showed, while most economists thought the prospect of Ireland re-entering bond markets on schedule in 2013 is looking more likely than a month ago.

Asked if, after raising short-term debt for the first time in 18 months last week, Ireland could borrow enough long-term debt to avoid a second bailout, five of the seven economists who replied said either “probably” or “yes”.

“Depending on the negotiations over the coming months, Ireland could take a giant leap towards debt sustainability, although this must be accompanied by continued adherence to fiscal consolidation plans,” said Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers.

Reuters

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