Cheaper now than next spring to address any feed deficit

Thursday, September 20, 2012

The most common question I am being asked at the moment is, “Is the shortage of fodder as bad as they say?”

Unfortunately, it is a serious reality for many livestock farmers as we head for the winter.

I have no doubt that many farmers are worried about feed supply, but they are almost afraid to do the sums.

But the last thing you should do is hope for the best, when you know you don’t have enough.

One thing is for certain: you will be able to address any deficit cheaper in September than you will next spring.

Act now and act fast is the message.

Last week I stressed the importance of establishing feed requirements, and now that the harvest is almost complete, alternatives to silage will become scarce soon.

The faster you assess requirements, the sooner you can deal with deficits, or put your mind at ease that you will be OK for feed.

Either way, get help and do your sums ASAP.

The autumn is creeping in fast, and daylight hours are getting shorter.

Much of the fodder that will be saved has already been saved, or soon will be.

Fields are not returning the amount of bales that farmers are expecting.

Most are not used to making silage in the month of September, and as a result, are not used to the requirements for conservation of autumn grasses.

Once wilted, autumn grass dramatically reduces in volume.

Grass is currently no more than 13-14% dry matter.

Another major factor is the likelihood that current grass swards are lower in sugars, and are difficult to preserve, as a result.

An additive should seriously be considered as an aid to preservation, to optimise feed quality and reduce waste at feed out time.

Apart from asking about the fodder shortage, farmers are also talking about the world grain supply.

Many are under the impression that the poor harvests worldwide are being exaggerated by the industry.

I am afraid this is not the case.

World production of coarse grains (maize, barley, sorghum, millet, rye and oats) is projected at 1,148 million tonnes, down 17 million tonnes (or 1.5%) from 2011.

The anticipated fall mainly reflects a smaller maize crop, which is expected to decline to 864 million tonnes in 2012, 20 million tonnes less than in 2011.

According to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture, published on Aug 10, this year’s maize crop in the US could fall to 274 million tonnes, down 56 million tonnes (17%) from the July forecast, and 40 million tonnes (13%) under the previous year’s crop.

The FAO’s forecast for world wheat production has also been downgraded since July.

Global wheat production is anticipated to reach 663 million tonnes in 2012, down 15 million tonnes (2%) from the previous forecast, which would be 36 million tonnes (5%) under 2011.

Most of the decline reflects the negative effects of drought on yields and production in the former USSR countries.

Wheat output in the Russian Federation is forecast to decline by 29%, to 40 million tonnes, compared to 2011, and under the 41.5 million tonnes registered in 2010.

Production also looks set to fall sharply in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, by 47% and 37% respectively.

By contrast, a number of other key producers may harvest larger crops.

In the US, wheat production is to increase by 13.5%, to an above-average level of 61.7 million tonnes.

In Canada, wheat output is expected to be above average, and 6 % higher than in 2011.

This year’s harvest in India is pointing to a record of almost 94 million tonnes (up 8% from the previous year’s record).

Likewise, in China, wheat output may reach a new high of 118 million tonnes.

In the EU, the latest projections point to only a small reduction from 2011.

All of the above statistics mean that availability of cereals will be limited by a lower worldwide supply.

The forecast for world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2013 has been lowered to 503 million tonnes, down 32.5 million tonnes (6%) from July, and 19 million tonnes (3.6%) below their opening level.

The weather conditions which have caused the world cereal harvest to be so poor have also left a deficit of soya in the world.

Soya dictates protein costs worldwide, and all protein prices have escalated beyond prices ever seen before, because some of the protein alternatives are by-products of maize.

What does all of this mean for the farmer/end user?

A scarce supply of feed, coupled with large demand due to a lack of forage, will elevate feed costs as the winter progresses.

Establishing your concentrate requirements now, and doing a deal with your supplier to forward buy compounds or straights, will help to take some of the pain out of feeding your stock this winter.

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