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Eurozone crisis gains dangerous momentum

Despite the many summits and the many initiatives the ECB and other European policymakers have put in place over the past year, the eurozone crisis continues to rumble on.

Indeed it seems to be gaining a fresh and much more dangerous momentum over the past few weeks. Anybody who believed the measures suggested at the last EU summit in late June would provide something akin to a solution, are now re-considering, and with good reason.

The future sustainability of the euro is still very much open to doubt. We are now hearing much more talk from unexpected sources of a possible exit mechanism for Greece from the eurozone. There are no surprises there. The Greek economic situation is getting worse by the day and it is now looking at an economic contraction of at least 7% this year.

The economic, social and political damage that a further contraction of this magnitude would do to Greece is pretty scary. It is hard to see how Greece can possibly continue to live within the strictures of a currency bloc such as the euro.

Unfortunately, Spain’s problems have also come back with a vengeance. The rescue of its banking system was important, but the real economy story has become so difficult that the markets are reluctant to lend money to the country at reasonable rates of interest.

Should they decide not to lend money regardless of the level of interest rates, then Spain would have no choice other than to enter a bailout programme similar to what Ireland was forced to do in 2010. The cost of a Spanish bailout would start to seriously stretch existing bailout resources in the EU. Spain is big enough to cause huge problems, unlike Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

The reality of a bailout scenario of the magnitude implied by Spanish entry is that the main financial burden is placed on the stronger EU states such as Germany and the Netherlands.

This cost burden poses considerable risks for those countries and hence the discredited but still influential ratings agencies are now threatening to downgrade the sovereign debt of those countries. The dilemma for those countries then is whether these costs are worth bearing, given that the system may be doomed in any event.

The impact of all of this on the German economy is becoming increasingly apparent. The influential Ifo survey of German business confidence released on Wednesday showed German business confidence in June fell to its lowest level since Mar 2010. The survey is made up of two parts — a ‘current conditions’ part and an ‘expectations’ part. The latter, the most important element of the survey, fell to its lowest level since Jun 2009. This survey, when combined with other indicators of economic activity, suggests the eurozone is slipping back into recession.

There is obviously little that Ireland can do about these developments, but it is all very bad news for the country. An added source of concern is emanating from our most important trading partner outside the eurozone — the UK. Figures this week show that the UK economy contracted by a further 0.7% in the second quarter, confirming it is now experiencing a double dip recession. There are some exceptional factors impacting such as weather and the timing of bank holidays, but it is clear that the economy is once again in significant difficulty.

From Ireland’s perspective it is a concern that exports are now under considerable threat from the loss of economic momentum in most of our main export markets. This will have implications for the budgetary arithmetic in December, but rather than imposing additional austerity, I think we will have to accept that the fiscal targets may not be met in the timeframe envisaged. I worry about the impact a property tax of the scale that is being suggested might have on the economy. Home

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