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Euro’s future depends on Germany’s next step

At long last we’ve seen some movement from the various investigations into how our economy dived so far so quickly. How long we’ve waited to see something, anything, happening that might just suggest that those doing the investigating were actually going to take it any further.

Now three of the most senior executives from the now defunct Anglo Irish Bank have been charged with a variety of offences under company law. It’s not before time.

Following the then government’s decision in September 2008 to effectively underwrite the banks, good and bad, the economy has been in free fall.

However, it’s not just been the Irish economy. If it had been, it might have been so much easier to resolve the problem.

As we’ve seen over the last few years, country after country arrived at that place where it can no longer afford the pay the interest demanded for government bonds. Bailout time arrives and with each new bailout, another crisis develops, each more serious than the last. When it was Greece, we could put it down to the profligacy of the Greeks, spending like it was going out of fashion, and failing to collect taxes. Together with Greece, Ireland and Portugal were seen by many as countries that could be dropped by the way side if push came to shove. In other words, there would only be a slight embarrassment if they failed. They are not seen as core to the success of the EU or indeed the euro project, no matter what we might think.

Spain is a whole other matter. Spain has effectively been bailed out twice so far this year. It now looks as if it needs another and even bigger one.

However, the Spanish economy is so much bigger than any of the other lame ducks. Unfortunately, for Spain and indeed for the rest of us, it’s now also arrived at the stage where the European powerhouse, Germany, is beginning to feel the pressure on its own economy. That is where the bigger problem arises. Without Germany’s active involvement in rescuing the euro, there will be no euro.

Yet, Germany for its own internal political reasons refuses to do what is necessary. In a sense it is understandable why they are being so hesitant in agreeing to underpin the euro economies with a common fund. After all, the countries that are now in trouble got there through their own actions, albeit ably assisted by events outside of their control.

Nevertheless, outside economic events simply accelerated the problems, they did not cause them — it was only a matter of timing.

Germany, and indeed others such as Denmark and Finland, fears these countries cannot be controlled and will simply get back up on the proverbial bike again and repeat their earlier mistakes. It is a fear that has a strong basis. But surely it is not beyond the highly paid brains of the highly paid ECB, IMF and EU administrators to come up with a means of control.

Failure to take the final step by Germany has meant that EU efforts to resolve the economic crisis have been piecemeal at best.

Every band-aid is seen for what it is — a failure to do what is necessary and the markets react. Piecemeal control of the markets such as banning “short selling” for a period simply show how bad things are. Germany benefited in the past from the largesse of others.

It was bailed out at its worst moment following the Second World War. When the wall collapsed and Germany was united, the rest of the EU allowed Germany to break every rule in the EU rulebook to get the eastern economy in shape.

It has handsomely gained from both the euro and the European Union. It’s now time to go that final step. Without Germany’s participation and agreement, the euro will go the way of the dodo.

business@examiner.ie

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